NATIONAL INVESTMENT CLUBS CONFERENCE 2007

PROSHARE CLUBS DAY

 

SATURDAY 1st DECEMBER 2007, 9.30am - 6pm,

St James Suite, Queen Elizabeth QEII Centre, Westminster, London

 

PANEL SESSION – QUESTIONS/ANSWERS

 

 

The panel session run over an hour and covered about a dozen questions.  The questions below are the remaining questions that were posted throughout the day.

 

 

Members of the panel

 

·        Terry Bond (Chair)

·        Paul Dolman-Darrall (Fairer Shares Investment Club)

·        Mike Evans (Millenium Materialists Investment Club)

·        Jeff Fitzpatrick (Darlington Dealers Investment Club)

·        Dave Gaskell (Rolling Stocks Investment Club)

·        Mark Goodson (H&G Family of Clubs)

·        Mourad Kara (Mobius Investment Club)

·        Dary McGovern (Sensatus Investment Club)

·        Dolores Maisonneuve (Blue Chip Stockings Investment Club)

·        Chris Rose (Crown Cycling Circle Investment Club)

·        Peter Salenieks (Dynamic Investment Club)

·        Emily Trant (ProshareCLubs)

 

 

 

 

 

Question for the panel#01: Should you vary your stop-loss according to market conditions?

 

[Paul Dolman-Darrall] Yes, the market represents about half the risk of a share. As such it is just as likely to contribute to a price move as the share itself. Stop losses are blunt tool and I prefer to understand the reasons behind a share price move before selling. Sometimes I buy more when a stop loss gets hit! So I use alerts, but don’t always necessarily sell. More often than not I do, as the information which leads to the price changing leads to a change in my analysis.


 

[Dave Gaskell] I would say that if you use stop-losses then you should vary your stop-loss based on a number of things.  For example, a company paying a 5% dividend will typically see a share price drop of 5% on going xd.  Running a tight stop-loss could see you stopped out in this scenario where you might not want to sell.  Similarly, you might want to tighten your stop loss over time if you have made good gains.  Our club tends to use a trailing stop loss in pence terms rather than a percentage.  This means that it naturally tightens as the share price rises (e.g. a 5p trailing stop-loss for a share price of 50p is 10% but if the share price doubles, the 5p stop-loss has now tightened to 5%.  This locks in more profit once you’ve made a good return.

 

[Mourad Kara] Yes, I think this is a good idea to consider this in your S/L policy. In the past, we have set a stop loss relative to the share price or using technical analysis (50 or 200 EMA) and this has not served us well in the club lately. We sold shares that triggered their S/L and got sold just to see them bounce again. In the club, we have agreed in September 2007 to build in the S/L calculation the FTSE-allshare volatility.




Question for the panel#02: Does the panel attempt to measure risk for each investment? If so, how, and does it work?

 

[Paul Dolman-Darrall] We use Risk Grades (http://www.riskgrades.com) – Full information available on the website.

 

[Dave Gaskell] Our club manages risk by having certain money management checks defined in our Strategy with respect to diversification.  These checks are limits on how much we have in any one share, sector, asset class, or investment type.  We review our portfolio against these checks each month as part of our monthly treasurer’s report. When we decide to buy, we make sure that we don’t breach any of these limits.  We also set our buy amounts based on a % of our overall assets (i.e. as our portfolio grows, we buy in larger amounts).   All this helps us keep within our own preferred exposure to risk.


[Mike Evans]: Yes, we use the “Risk Rating” listed for each UK company on the Digital Look website to give us a guide.

 

[Mourad Kara] We try to use risk reward ratios for shares proposed (in theory we set this for the club but we don’t use it as often as we should). For each share, once we identified the target price and S/L (using technical analysis, fundamentals), then you can compute the risk reward ratio to see whether it is worth going ahead. It can also help you prioritise if you have multiple shares. I have looked at riskgrade factor but we have not used it yet in the club.

 

[Peter Salenieks]  RiskGrades are used to gauge each share and the portfolio as a whole. We also assess portfolio diversity by market, market sector and market capitalisation. Together with technical analysis and newsflow, this helps us to monitor the balance between risk and reward. Of course, clubs that meet monthly can find it harder to react to sudden developments than private investors.



Question for the panel#03: What is the most effective sell strategy for
maximising and retaining profit?


[Paul Dolman-Darrall] Finding companies you never need to sell. However if you do need to sell, only sell a great company when you know the shares are overvalued. Keep them if they are a fair value.

 

[Dave Gaskell] Buying stocks that go up is a good start!  Other than that, I don’t believe it’s possible to have an ‘optimum’ strategy without being a fortune teller and knowing when share prices are at their top.  Our approach is typically to define your exit criteria at the time of purchase, only change it when there’s a good reason to, and get out when your exit criteria is met.  Having good discipline is as important, probably more important, than any particular exit strategy


 [Peter Salenieks]  Run your profits and stop your losses. It’s an old adage that has stood the test of time.



Question for the panel#04: We are currently invested in Trackers via individual members and considering alternative investments offshore not conclusive to clubs, hence leaning towards incorporation. Is this the best approach, or can we manage exotic investment options as a club?

 

[Mike Evans]: How exotic do you want to be? There are numerous ETF’s and ETC’s covering other countries and commodities. Other collective options are unit trusts and investment trusts. Most brokers will also deal with individual companies in Europe and USA.

 
 Peter Salenieks] Most stockbrokers will let you open a dealing account in the name of your club. This gives access to a wide range of equities and is preferable to holding club assets in the name of one member. Commodities and traded options offer a more exotic touch, although the latter are for more experienced investors.

Question for the panel#05: Is Jeff Fitzpatrick full time on the job?

 

Question for the panel#06: How do we get to find out what other investment clubs are in our local area?

 [Peter Salenieks]  It’s best to get in touch with DigitalLook, although you may well meet members of other investment clubs at regional conferences and seminars.

 

[Mourad Kara] Proshareclubs suggested emailing them to get information on local clubs. Other contacts you can build locally over time by meeting clubs in local seminars, Proshareclubs Award dinners, from the various online forums and by visiting club web sites.

Question for the panel#07: Should clubs have a minimum period in which shares should be held before selling?

 

[Paul Dolman-Darrall]  No, information is more important than time.

 

[Dave Gaskell] Our club typically holds for at least 6 months regardless of share price movement until that point is reached.  We will not buy a share if we expect to sell it within 2 months.

Mike Evans: No, if information changes then you should respond to it.

[Mourad Kara] I don’t think so – it depends on your portfolio strategies really.  We don’t have a minimum period.

 

 [Peter Salenieks]  Apart from taxation issues if you sell and repurchase shares in quick succession, I would not set an arbitrary limit. Instead, decide on a target price and a stop loss when you purchase a stock and sell it when one or other condition is triggered, or you identify a better investment opportunity.


 

Question for the panel#08: Diversification is risk profile more important than Zulu principle or can Zulu principle improve risk profile?

[Paul Dolman-Darrall] Diversification is overrated, all rich men never diversified and neither did all poor men. A margin of safety when buying your stocks is probably more important than diversification. But then again I own 36 stocks!

 

[Peter Salenieks] As Jim Slater explains in Beyond the Zulu Principle, this is all about becoming a relative expert by concentrating on your chosen area, be it growth shares or a particular sector. This offers the prospect of outperforming the market – something that surprisingly few professional fund managers can achieve consistently. However, it is still important to diversify; even if you specialise in growth shares, as Slater advocates, then choose ones covering a spread of sectors and market capitalisation.

Question for the panel#09: Can you explain warrants/ ETFs?

  [Peter Salenieks]  Warrants confer the right, though not the obligation to buy shares at a set price on some future date. They used to be quite popular with investment trusts. Like other kinds of option, they magnify your gains and losses compared to investment in the underlying shares.

 

Exchange traded funds are a simple investment tool that aims to track a selected index whilst capturing the benefits of both shares and funds. They can be bought and sold exactly like the stock of a listed company during the trading day through your broker or financial advisor. An added attraction is that they generally have lower charges that tracker funds.

Question for the panel#10: Do moving averages truly give 'buy' or 'sell' signals? What averages are considered better?

 

[Paul Dolman-Darrall] No in my opinion, other than good stocks go up and bad stocks go down.

 

[Mourad Kara] We use moving averages to discuss trends for individual shares in monthly meetings and some members in the club try to use them as the sole instrument for a sell or buy signals (using the 50 and 200 EMA), but there is strong resistance within the club

 

 [Peter Salenieks]  Moving averages help you identify trend reversals and are one of a vast range of indicators employed in technical analysis. Also look into Bollinger Bands to gauge price volatility and consider using Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), an indicator that compares pairs of moving averages. No one time span is best, although Martin Pring suggests a default of 12- and 26-day exponential moving averages in his book: An Introduction to Technical Analysis.

Question for the panel#11: Included in every website analysis of companies are broker's reports/ analysis, also target prices. No mention today? Are these irrelevant as tip sheets and media pundits?

[Paul Dolman-Darrall] They provide information which is often fed to them from the company. As such they are as useful as an update on the stock market. However as they are future information, treat it with the scepticism it deserves.

 

 [Dave Gaskell] Broker forecasts are useful in that they are an educated view as to the likely future financials of a company based on information the analyst has access to.  They need to be treated with some caution as they are only forecasts/predictions and, like all prediction, are based on assumptions and could be wrong.  However, it would seem silly to completely ignore them as it is all part of the available information that could help you decide whether or not to buy.  We didn’t mention them much in the Investment Club day purely because time didn’t allow us to discuss fundamental analysis in any significant detail.

 

 [Peter Salenieks]  They can be a very useful source of facts, analysis and informed comment, although brokers may be biased towards Buy recommendations. They should be weighed against all the other evidence that you use to make investment decisions.

Question for the panel#12: Where do you see BHP and RIO in 12 months time?

  [Peter Salenieks]  These are not stocks that I follow closely. However, the answer turns on whether they are able to realise economies of scale together at a fair price and in a manner that satisfies the regulators. Otherwise, it is hard to see a case for merger.

Question for the panel#13: What is an ETC?

 [Dave Gaskell] Should this be ETF?  If so then see question 9.  If not then I’ve no idea.

 

 [Peter Salenieks]  ETC stands for Exchange Traded Commodity. These are similar to Exchange Traded Funds and are traded just like normal shares, except that they are designed to track the performance of an underlying commodity index (e.g. energy or precious metals) or even a single commodity like Brent crude oil or gold. They can be used to diversify a portfolio and are growing more popular in the United Kingdom. Take care, however, as some are priced in US dollars, rather than pounds sterling.
 

Question for the panel#14: Estimated total invested by UK Investment Club? How to start a club if one has no suitable professional/ neighbourhood network?

[Paul Dolman-Darrall]  I am far more pessimistic knowing the market share Barclays has (the company I work for). I would suggest the more realistic figure is nearer £50m.

 

 [Mourad Kara] Here is one possible estimate £300M:  In the current Barclays/Telegraph 2007 competition (still ongoing) there are 325 clubs participating with a total of £10.32M. This suggests an average fund of ~£31.8K per club (as it happens our club is ~£30k)!. Assuming the figures quoted by ProshareClubs of 12000 investment clubs, then total invested by UK investment clubs is £381M.I probably think that a figure of around £300M is more realistic.

 


 [Peter Salenieks]  The easiest way to get started is to contact DigitalLook and ask them to put you in touch with any nearby clubs that are seeking new members, or are willing to act as mentors. If there are none close at hand, then see if you can gather together a group of friends or colleagues and obtain a copy of the ProShare Handbook, which contains a great deal of distilled wisdom on the practicalities of starting and running an investment club.
Question for the panel#15: Is having a club with more members more beneficial than having a small group (e.g. 5 or 6)?

 

[Paul Dolman-Darrall] Yes, greater funds to invest. The downside is that this leads to greater management also.

 

[Dave Gaskell] Our club has only ever had 6 members in the 9 years it’s been going.  Benefit is that it is close, works well together, there’s no hiding place for members that want to be lazy, and we all share the same values.  Downside is that, until the limit on subscriptions was raised, it can take longer to build up enough cash to make new purchases and you can perhaps become a bit set in your ways if no ‘new blood’ is coming in.  We’re happy in a small club.


Mike Evans: We like a membership of 10 which is enough to ensure new ideas but still an opportunity for everyone to be involved and make their contribution. Also depends on venue ie members home, pub etc

 

[Mourad Kara] Mobius club has had  between 5 and 8  members with probably 6 as the long term average (we actually have a member count chart in our web site -  Would you believe it!). I think what matters is attendance and participation, I know of a few clubs in the North East who have between 16 and 20 members and yet only 5 or 6 are regular.  With a small number, you do not have the problem of committee for share selection, voting etc., 5 to 10 is still small enough to easily manage collective decisions – I find.

 

 [Peter Salenieks]  You need enough members to share out the work, but not so many that monthly meetings become cumbersome. Six to ten is a good number for a meeting, although you will need more members than this in total because individuals are seldom able to attend every meeting.

Question for the panel#16: Is it always necessary to use a broker?

 

[Mourad Kara] To trade in shares, yes it is. But for unit trust, investment trusts and other funds, you may be able to buy/sell these directly from providers or via fund supermarkets.


  [Peter Salenieks]  It’s usually necessary, although Investment Trust savings schemes offer one alternative. They offer new clubs cost-effective access to a range of markets whilst they are accumulating sufficient funds to invest in a portfolio of individual companies.

Question for the panel#17: What is the maximum number of members you would recommend for a share club?

[Mourad Kara] There is no official limit anymore – though in our club, we have a soft limit of 8 to 10, since we meet in members’ homes (rotating) and it can be difficult if we have over 8 members.

 

Peter Salenieks]  There used to be a limit of twenty members per club and our club retained this even after HMRC relaxed the rules governing investment clubs.
 

Question for the panel#18: Does Proshare intend to promote other club
activities and new items similar to the magazine 'Dividend'?

 [Peter Salenieks]  Whilst this is a matter for ProShare, there is scope to take advantage of web-based delivery for affordable promotion of activities and sharing of information. The clubs themselves must be prepared to contribute, otherwise it will be hard to sustain.
 

Question for the panel#19: What suggestions would the panel have for
'encouraging' the more sleepy members of a club to take a more active part?

 

[Paul Dolman-Darrall] Let them sleep, they are doing no harm. 

 

[Mike Evans]: Delegate responsibilities, eg membership secretary, competition secretary, social secretary. Allocate 1-2 shares of the club’s portfolio to each member to monitor and report on at each meeting. This doesn’t prevent other members from doing so.

 

[Mourad Kara]  This is one of the most difficult issues in investment clubs – We have devised a semi-mechanical portfolio where members have less to do (than preparing a full toolkit for a company) and this seems to be proving more popular.  The semi-mechanical pre-selects five shares every month (based on screening) and members have to rank these. This way, we have a collective decision making scheme.

  [Peter Salenieks]  A quiet word from the Chairman can be persuasive, especially if your club has a membership limit and there are new members waiting to join. Above all, make the meetings enjoyable, as that is the best way to promote good attendance and active participation. The ProShare model constitution and rules do include sanctions, though try to use them sparingly!

Question for the panel#20: Does a beginner stand a chance during a bear market? How can they learn to invest effectively without losing their shirt in a bear market?

 

 

[Paul Dolman-Darrall] No not really, however when the market changes they would make the more money compared to the beginning starting in a bull market.

 

[Dave Gaskell] Our club started in the late 1990s and did our learning during the bull run…..or so we thought.  In truth, when everything is going up, how much are you really learning?  It’s only when it becomes more difficult that you really learn.  In that sense, beginning in a bear market isn’t necessarily a bad thing to do – as long as you don’t get disheartened by not beating the market.   Looking for “value” stocks might be a useful initial strategy to adopt when learning.  Companies with low PE ratios, high dividend yields, etc.  Many of our club’s holdings are “value” stocks that we believe are underpriced.  Even so….these can still go down.  The point really is to understand why you’ve bought them and have a clear view on when you want to sell.  With “value” stocks, you need to be patient as it can take a while for the market to realise that the company is undervalued.   Looking for good buys in a bear market is a good learning opportunity.

 

Mike Evans: I wish this question only applied to beginners. How long does it take before one ceases being a beginner?

 

 [Peter Salenieks]  Techniques such as shorting are useful in a bear market, although it is better to gain experience before employing them. Consider drip-feeding a regular monthly sum into investment trust savings schemes to even out the volatility and benefit from pound-cost averaging.

Look at the broad issues. Be aware of asset allocation – it’s more important than choice of individual share. Eg Equities – large cap, small cap, UK, USA, emerging markets etc. Bonds. Commodities. Cash. Property.

 

Question for the panel#21: Do you recommend Financial Outing for a fun educational day out?

[Mourad Kara] Yes, this is very beneficial. We were fortunate to win a Proshare Award and won a CMC technical Analysis course – six members went to the course in London and we collectively worked and shared how to apply this in the club. We also thought of visiting local companies but never managed to do so.
 

 [Peter Salenieks]  Anything that helps members to have fun learning about investing is worth considering. Our club visited a stockbroker and has also arranged social events to check out prospective investments in the restaurant sector. Conferences and exhibitions are educational. Also think about inviting speakers to your club.

Question for the panel#22: How would the panel set about energising the UK investment club movement at regional level?

 [Mourad Kara] Following the large thumbs up and positive feedback we got from the national conference, the way forward must be regional ones and one or two national gathering/conferences; probably along the lines of South, South West, North [East, West] and Scotland/Wales depending on concentration of clubs and geographical density.  My view is to identify clubs in the region and provide means for these to self-manage the regional ones with a central body (via the like of ProshareClubs and a UK steering group).

 

 [Peter Salenieks]  I am an advocate of regional mentoring as a way to share knowledge and experience without incurring undue cost. To work effectively, it requires a pool of experienced volunteers from established investment clubs plus a matchmaking service to pair them up with newer clubs. Events such as the Investment Club National Conference could then compliment this by providing a national forum to pool knowledge and experience.

Question for the panel#23: How do you recruit and integrate new members into an established club? It can be intimidating to come to a meeting where existing members appear to have a knowledge and expertise.

 

[Mike Evans]: Most clubs have an important social element and therefore new members are usually friends who show interest and commitment to improving their knowledge. Integration is like any other club eg tennis club – get some coaching from existing members outside normal club meetings eg explanation of terminology, direction to websites, practise sifting criteria eg Digital Look website, read financial press, websites, magazines. Don’t be afraid to ask questions – not all established members are likely to know the answer!

 

[Mourad Kara] Having a relatively small number of 6 to 8 members, it has not been a problem - we always try to remember that when we joined, most members knew little and hence the “learn” aspect is key. Providing help to new members in terms of completing a typical proposal has always been at hand in the club. Other activities, such as outings, meals and Christmas dinners help new members integrate.

 

[Peter Salenieks]  It works best when there is a common bond, such as workplace-based clubs or those with a shared interest. Then you recruit from like-minded people that are already known to the existing members. A good chairman will encourage new members to become progressively more involved in monthly meetings, actions and the day to day running of the club. You could also consider a buddy system, whereby a new member shadows a more experienced one as they learn about a particular area. I also recommend sharing books and magazines, as many clubs can boast a surprisingly good collection.